Publications

Weather Forecasts Become More Important for Reducing Mortality as the Climate Warms
(with Laura Bakkensen, Derek Lemoine, Manuel Linsenmeier, and Jeffrey Shrader)
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2026

Abstract

Climate change will increase the frequency and severity of extreme heat, which is a leading cause of weather-related mortality. We combine causal estimates of how temperature forecast accuracy affects mortality in the United States with expert projections of changes in forecast accuracy over the coming century. Our analysis shows that improving short-run temperature forecasts in line with central expert projections would reduce annual heat-related mortality by about 18% by 2100, saving thousands of lives per year. If investments in earth observation networks and weather models improve forecasts in line with optimistic expert projections, annual heat-related mortality would fall by around 25% by 2100. Improving forecasts facilitates adaptation to climate change, saving more lives when climate change is more severe.

Working Papers

Segregation, Spillovers, and the Locus of Racial Change
(with Donald Davis and Matthew Easton)
NBER Working Paper, 2025

Abstract

We use a discrete choice framework to provide the first nesting of Thomas C. Schelling’s canonical models of racial segregation amenable to empirical examination. Using U.S. Census data from 1970–2000, we demonstrate a central role for spatial racial spillovers in shaping racial clustering, patterns of racial shares and housing prices at the boundary of racial clusters, and the locus of racial change. Our results on the locus of racial change conflict strongly with prominent prior results on racial tipping. Our theory provides a foundation for spatially stratified regressions. The strongest spatial effects in the prior work are not tipping, but the distinct biased White suburbanization. Tipping effects in urban areas remote from Minority clusters are small or insignificant. In urban areas proximate to Minority clusters they average less than half those reported in prior pooled results. Policies promoting racial integration must thus attend to the heterogeneous fragility of neighborhoods.

Work in Progress

The Welfare Effects of Traffic Calming: Evidence from London’s 20 mph Limits
Job market paper

Abstract

Road traffic is associated with a wide array of negative externalities that can vary substantially across space. Economic theory suggests that the preferred way to address such externalities is Pigouvian pricing which is welfare enhancing unless correcting taxes exceed marginal external costs. In practice, spatially targeted pricing interventions such as congestion charges are extremely rare. Instead, cities resort to traffic-calming measures such as stricter speed limits to steer motor vehicle traffic and address its negative externalities. Such interventions have become very popular over recent decades but have a priori ambiguous welfare consequences as inframarginal drivers bear a true time or access cost. In this paper, I study the welfare consequences of reducing 30 mph to 20 mph speed limits in London. Constructing novel road-level data on vehicle speeds and volumes covering all roads in Greater London between 2010 and 2025, I document that average speeds have fallen by about 10% over the time period despite declining vehicle volumes. I then use the staggered introduction of 20 mph limits across roads to estimate the causal effect of speed limit changes on accessibility, vehicle volumes, accident risk, and traffic externalities more broadly. I find that 20 mph limits contributed only 5% to the observed reduction in speeds between 2010 and 2025, implying that drivers in 2025 lost at least 3.7 million vehicle-hours due to stricter speed limits. At the same time I find that 20 mph limits reduced accidents by about 20 fatalities and 1,200 casualties per year. At recommended UK valuations, these estimates corresponds to time costs for drivers of about £65 million yearly and accident cost savings of about £84 million indicating that speed limits are welfare enhancing.

Long-Term Health Impacts of Air Pollution Exposure on the London Underground
(with Adam Dennett, Pia Hardelid, Laura Horsfall, John Hurst, Calum Kennedy, Matthew Loxham, Nicola Shelton, Jemima Stockton, and Jonathan Taylor)

Abstract

Subway systems around the world are prone to elevated particulate concentrations relative to surface transport, yet the health consequences of chronic exposure to this type of air pollution are poorly understood. We combine granular pollution measurements, transit schedule, and cohort data on health outcomes linked to the UK census to estimate whether commuting via the Underground carries long-term mortality and cancer risks.

Public Transit Pricing and Labor Market Monopsony Power
(with Johannes Brinkmann, Andreas Filser, and Irakli Sauer)

Abstract

We examine how transit fare policy affects local labor markets where employers hold wage-setting power, connecting transport pricing to labor market outcomes in Germany.

Predoctoral Research

Flood impacts on urban transit and accessibility — A case study of Kinshasa
(with Yiyi He, Paolo Avner, and Jun Rentschler)
Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 2021

Gender Dimensions of Disaster Risk and Resilience: Existing Evidence
(with Alvina Erman, Sophie Anne De Vries Robbe, Kayenat Kabir, and Mirai Maruo)
World Bank Report, 2021

Floods and their Impacts on Firms: Evidence from Tanzania
(with Jun Rentschler, Ella Jisun Kim, Sophie Anne De Vries Robbe, Alvina Erman, and Stephane Hallegatte)
World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 2021

Household Level Effects of Flooding. Evidence from Thailand
(with Zhuldyz Ashikbayeva, Marei Fürstenberg, Timo Kapelari and Albert Pierres)
TVSEP Working Paper, 2020

A Gini approach to spatial CO2 emissions
(with Bin Zhou, Ramana Gudipudi, Matthias Lüdeke, Jürgen Kropp, and Diego Rybski)
PLOS ONE, 2020